Neighborhoods

In this comprehensive study, we harnessed the richness of two distinct datasets to unravel the intricate dynamics between Airbnb rentals, crime rates, and community well-being in San Francisco. The first dataset, sourced from Inside Airbnb, furnishes a detailed CSV file with crucial information on host details, rental specifics, and rental review data. Our second dataset encompasses San Francisco crime police incident reports dating back to 2018, providing a comprehensive view of criminal activities within the city.

Our exploration is focused on two divergent neighborhoods within San Francisco's 36 districts, shedding light on how crime and Airbnb presence intertwine to influence community dynamics. The Richmond District, encompassing both Inner and Outer Richmond, has evolved from "outside lands" to a vibrant residential area with a unique character (SF Travel, 2023). Predominantly of Chinese heritage, this neighborhood boasts a diverse demographic mix, including deep Irish and Russian roots. The influx of young professionals, drawn by a more relaxed living environment amidst the tech boom, contributes to the dynamic tapestry of Inner and Outer Richmond (SF Travel, 2023). Housing in this area is diverse, encompassing Edwardian homes, cottages, and row houses. While not as pristine as wealthier neighborhoods, the Inner Richmond strikes a balance between the urban and suburban, with ongoing renewal projects aimed at revitalizing housing and enhancing the overall streetscape (SF Travel, 2023).

On the flip side, the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood, inclusive of the notorious Tenderloin district, presents a commercially dominated landscape. Despite its notoriety for issues such as homelessness, drug overdoses, and retail theft, the Tenderloin is a complex neighborhood with a unique charm reminiscent of New York in the 1980s (Fuller, 2023). Life thrives on its streets, fostering an environment where conversations flourish and diversity is celebrated. Waves of immigrant families, hole-in-the-wall art galleries, dive bars, and exceptional Thai cuisine add to the district's vibrant tapestry (Fuller, 2023). Recent signs of revitalization in the Tenderloin are apparent, with optimism fueled by decreasing rents and an influx of artists, musicians, and unconventional thinkers bringing in an art walk through the Tenderloin contributes to a renewed sense of hope and community spirit (Fuller, 2023). However, it is crucial to acknowledge the complexities within the Tenderloin. The neighborhood faces challenges such as crime, open-air drug deals, and economic struggles, raising concerns about the potential for revitalization (Ramos, 2023). The delicate balance between compassion and reason in addressing these issues becomes evident as community members admire the neighborhood's uniqueness and realize its problems (Ramos, 2023).

By merging insights from these neighborhoods, we aim to provide a nuanced understanding of how Airbnb listings intersect with crime rates and influence community dynamics. Our study speculates that the surge in Airbnb listings may contribute to the deterioration of community bonds and safety perceptions among full-time residents in these diverse San Francisco neighborhoods. Through a comprehensive exploration of crime data, Airbnb patterns, and the unique characteristics of each neighborhood, we strive to offer valuable insights into the intricate relationships shaping urban experiences in San Francisco.

Timeline

Map

This map illustrates the population of the individual Airbnb rentals by neighborhood layered over the geographical outlines of each police district in San Francisco. In the northwest corner of San Francisco lies the Richmond district, for which we combined the data for both the Inner and Outer Richmond Districts listed under Airbnb rentals and the Richmond police district in dark brown. Over on the east side of San Francisco, right above the definitive Market Street, are the Airbnb rentals listed under the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood and the Tenderloin police district in yellow.

For the most part, the correlation between the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood and the Tenderloin police district, as well as the Inner and Outer Richmond neighborhood and the Richmond police district, align quite clearly. While they do not necessarily match up perfectly, this map gives us a general idea of the density of Airbnbs in each neighborhood and which police districts they fall under jurisdiction; this will enable us to compare and contrast the data from Inside Airbnb and the police incident reports from San Francisco to generate a more comprehensive view of how Airbnb rentals and crime interrelate to each other and how Airbnbs may affect the local community and local social dynamics.

This map shows that while both the Inner and Outer Richmond neighborhoods have their fair share of Airbnb rentals available, the Downtown/Civic Center has a much higher density of rentals. As a result, we can infer that the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood receives much more renters and tourists than the Richmond District. According to “Airbnb and neighborhood crime: The incursion of tourists or the erosion of local social dynamics?”, the presence of more Airbnbs in a single area contributes to the erosion of the community's ability to create and foster a true sense of community due to the liminality of travelers and use of viable households as a short-term rental option instead of homes ultimately damages “its natural ability of a neighborhood to counteract and discourage crime, specifically violent crime” (Ke et al., 2021). Consequently, the density of Airbnbs present in the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood versus the entirety of the Richmond District may contribute to similar effects on the local community.

Data Analysis

Using the data from the San Francisco Police Department, this tree graph deconstructs the categories of crime by police district labeled by color. From the graph, the Tenderloin police district that covers the area listed under Downtown/Civic Center on Airbnb, showcases more crime incident reports than the Richmond police district that encompasses both the Inner and Outer Richmond neighborhoods under Airbnb. Furthermore, the largest crime category reported was larceny theft across all police districts. Across the board, the major crime sectors following larceny-theft include nonviolent crimes such as malicious mischief, other miscellaneous, burglary, motor vehicle theft, or non-criminal. The Richmond police district follows this trend with the most reported incidents under larceny-theft, malicious mischief, burglary, and non-criminal incidents, respectively. However, the largest categories of incidents most reported in the Tenderloin police district after larceny-theft include drug offenses, assault, miscellaneous, and non-criminal. Save for the mission district, the Tenderloin police district has the most crime density as well as some of the more serious and consequential crimes in comparison to the other districts.

From looking at this tree graph, we can determine that the Tenderloin police district, and consequently the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood listed on the Airbnb site, that this area receives significantly more crime than the Richmond District. In an article by the San Francisco Chronicle, a 2023 survey of over 2,500 respondents revealed that the residents of San Francisco ranked the city's public safety at a C+ compared to the B they received in 2019 (Swan, 2023). Furthermore, the article also highlighted the neighborhood-specific sentiments about public safety. In the SoMa/Tenderloin area, a long-time resident maintained that things had remained the same. Further down the financial district, the locals express their concern for the chaos and violent crime ensuing in the tumultuous neighborhood.

In contrast, Outer Richmond/Seacliff received skeptical, plaintive sentiments. While the four local respondents who expressed their experience of increased crime in the area and its compromise of public safety in their neighborhood were troubled enough to rate this sector of San Francisco a D for public safety, two locals clarified that they had mostly seen petty crime and that they were “yet to feel unsafe about violent crime” (Swan, 2023).

As a result, the overall consensus on public safety sentiments in the Downtown/Civic Center remains aware of the potential and reputation for violent crime. At the same time, the Richmond District expresses cynicism but acknowledges that most of these crimes are “petty” (Swan, 2023). Comparing these sentiments to the tree graph, it makes sense that residents are more cautious about the Tenderloin District, which not only boasts the densest area of crime in San Francisco but remains the site for more violent crimes to occur.

With more Airbnb rental density in the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood, crime density continues to follow accordingly. Increasingly, locals are more cautious and wary about safety in this general vicinity - causing the local community to be skeptical of the neighborhood's potential and the community to lose investment in this particular area of San Francisco. When considering the difference in density between Airbnbs in the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood in contrast to the Richmond neighborhoods, we see how a larger presence of short-term Airbnb rentals can negatively affect the local sense of community and their ability to facilitate a welcoming, thriving community.

To better compare Downtown/Civic Center and the Richmond District, we also studied the types of rooms offered amongst the Airbnb listings in these districts. As shown in this bar graph, there are significantly more Airbnb listings for the entire house/apartment and private rooms in the Downtown/Civic Center compared to the Richmond District. Regarding entire house/apartment listings, Downtown/Civic Center has about 1.5 times as many listings as the inner and outer Richmond Districts combined. This proportion is even higher for private room listings, where Downtown/Civic Center has about 3.25 times as many listings as Richmond District.

Interestingly, Karl found that “safer” tourists, as a result, tend to choose “safe” destinations that are generally more popular and see a lot of tourist traffic that provides them with “a high level of familiarity and a low level of uncertainty” (Karl, 2018). With this in mind, tourists might find the Downtown/Civic Center more appealing because they're familiar with it being known as a popular tourist destination. This could potentially explain why Downtown/Civic Center has more Airbnb listings than Richmond District. In addition, this leaves the impression that more well-known neighborhoods are safer because more people are actively present in the area.

However, neighborhoods with higher concentrations of nonresidential land uses are expected to have more criminal opportunities than neighborhoods with lower concentrations, and this is because the former neighborhoods have a tendency to induce a high density of foot traffic in which it is common for people to be unfamiliar with each other (Wo & Kim, 2022). This is evident in most Airbnb listings in Downtown/Civic Center and Richmond District. Considering Downtown/Civic Center has more Airbnb listings and it's both an urban and primarily nonresidential area, the constant unfamiliarity with new tourists coming in and out may make it difficult for residents to develop a sense of local community within these neighborhoods.

With the constant flow of incoming tourists, residents are less incentivized to invest in their communities with the rise of temporary housing in the Downtown/Civic Center. A study conducted by Ke et al. showed that large-scale housing conversion into short-term rentals erodes the organization of a neighborhood and instead creates less structure, leading the way for more crime to occur (Ke et al., 2021). Urban areas like Downtown/Civic Center are more susceptible to crime with less investment in community and safety. Residents are left fending for themselves alone compared to those in Richmond District, where there is more of a collective effort to keep watch over one another.

This chart explores the trends in crime observed from 2018-2023 in two San Francisco neighborhood districts, Tenderloin and Richmond. As seen here, there has been a steep decline in larceny-theft during 2020, given the pandemic and the at-home regulations implemented due to COVID-19. However, following this year, larceny once again is on a steep climb, with numbers increasing in both 2021 and 2022.

Potential causes for the steep increase in 2021 can be partially attributed to the gradual ease of restrictions related to the pandemic and the surge in hate crimes against Asian Americans during this time, sometimes including thefts from this demographic. 2023's crime has not been included in this graph as the calendar year has not ended; the .csv file was found and cleaned in October, which leaves 16% of the calendar year unaccounted for. Therefore, including the data from 2023 would lead to an inaccurate data visualization as the user may be under a false impression. While Richmond is a more suburban district and Tenderloin is an urban district, both districts see a steady increase in crime rates following 2020, with Tenderloin having a higher slope in the past year. This visualization aims to affirm that while the pandemic temporarily halted crime due to the stay-at-home restrictions, crime has resumed and is increasing. This visualization aims to introduce the background of San Francisco's crime trends in both urban and suburban areas.

An interesting point to note in this visualization is the crime rates and how Richmond's crime rates are higher than Tenderloin, which encompasses the downtown region. While this may be contrary to popular belief, given that Richmond is a more suburban region, the Richmond district is 52.51 square miles. In contrast, the Tenderloin district is 224 acres or 0.35 square miles, so the crime rate per square mile offers quite a different data analysis. Tenderloin has a significantly higher larceny rate of 5,925 larceny cases per capita at crimes per square mile in 2022, whereas Richmond has 73 crimes per square mile, which is 81 times greater.

Another comparison we wanted to study was the difference between the years Airbnb hosts started in Downtown/Civic Center and Richmond District. As shown in this line graph, the two neighborhoods are being compared from 2018-2022 based on the year Airbnb hosts first began providing their services.

Our third data visualization previously observed the rates of burglaries, larceny thefts, and robberies in San Francisco between 2018 and 2022, comparing the rates of Tenderloin (Downtown/Civic Center) and Richmond District. We mentioned that in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began, there was a steep decline in larceny thefts, given the at-home regulations that forced everyone to remain home. This visualization shows that the number of Airbnb hosts that started out also faced a steep decline in 2020, both for Downtown/Civic Center and Richmond District. With these two common trends, there is a possibility that the COVID-19 pandemic played a role in the number of Airbnb hosts launching their listings and the number of larceny thefts occurring each year.

As for the years 2021 and 2022, there has been a steady increase in the number of Airbnb hosts starting. When the COVID-19 pandemic and regulations ended, Airbnb hosts saw this as an opportunity for tourism to flourish. Henceforth, the sudden spike in Airbnb hosts supports this. This demonstrates a correlation between the number of Airbnb hosts launching their listings and the number of larceny thefts occurring, where our other data visualization showed that larceny thefts have been continuously on the rise post-pandemic.

Overall, this data visualization affirms that the presence of Airbnbs affects the sense of community in the neighborhood and the investment residents have in their community. Steeper inclines in Downtown/Civic Center indicate less investment in safety and community as more tourists often come in and out of urban districts. Urban districts are considered more unsafe compared to suburban districts, which signifies how much time and effort residents invest in the safety of their communities and neighborhoods.

Considering crime has been on the rise, and there has been a steady increase in Airbnb hosts, we can infer that safety is indeed a concern for these neighborhoods and that Airbnb may play a potential role in the safety of these communities. Although Richmond District may not be as impacted since the inclines are not as severe on the graphs, steeper inclines in Downtown/Civic Center may indicate less investment in safety and community as more tourists often come in and out of urban districts.

The treemap showcases different-sized rectangles to symbolize the number of Airbnbs owned by each host in San Francisco. Color is used to distinguish further the number of rentals a host owns: the more properties a host owns, the closer to the color red it will be, and the fewer properties a host owns, the closer to the color dark green they will be. To make the chart even clearer, each box is labeled with the host's name, the number of properties they owned, and the type of properties they owned.

One of our focuses is investigating how the presence of Airbnbs affects the local community. This visualization shows that many large corporations/businesses own numerous Airbnb properties within the city. In this visualization, we can see that the main perpetrators are Blueground and LargeSuite.Io, and combined, they own over 800,000 properties that are entire homes or apartments. This further supports the concerns raised by many of the local community members of San Francisco who feel that these businesses have been taking advantage of and abusing community resources that can be allocated to people in need; rather, profit-seeking businesses are taking many possible homes that could belong to local “tenants rather than tourists.”

Furthermore, this project also investigates the correlation between crime and the heavy presence of Airbnbs. According to our background research, because the hosts of these properties do not have someone to occupy them permanently, the community's people cannot form a bond or connection with the host. As a result, community ideals such as looking out for one's neighbor, neighborhood watch, etc., go out of the window since the hosts are not incentivized to integrate themselves into the communities they buy properties properly. Thus, using this visualization, we interrogate how heavy these corporations are within our areas of study (Downtown and Richmond districts), if their presence impacts the social dynamics of these communities, and how they experience crime.

Conclusion

As previously mentioned, this project aims to explore the relationships that short-term rentals have on crimes, specifically larceny, theft, and robbery, within select neighborhoods in San Francisco, including Tenderloin and Richmond. Based on the visualizations provided, multiple conclusions can be made regarding the presented data. First, crime has been consistently increasing prior to the pandemic and has been steadily rising after an ease in restrictions in 2021 and 2022. For the sake of data accuracy, the data for 2023 has been omitted as the year has not concluded, and thus, would be inaccurate to include this data in the data set. Second, with the constant flow of incoming tourists, residents are less incentivized to invest in their communities with the rise of temporary housing in urban areas like Downtown/Civic Center. Urban areas are more susceptible to crime with less investment in community and safety. Residents are left fending for themselves alone compared to suburban areas like Richmond District, where there is more of a collective effort to keep watch over one another.

Considering crime has been on the rise, and there has been a steady increase in Airbnb hosts, we can infer that safety is indeed a concern for these neighborhoods and that Airbnb may play a potential role in the safety of these communities. There is a higher density of Airbnbs in the Downtown/Civic Center neighborhood than in the Inner and Outer Richmond Districts. In addition, there is a similar correlation of higher crime reports from the Tenderloin police district with a larger presence of violent crimes that cover the Downtown/Civic Center than the Richmond police district.

From the various secondary sources compiled, there is a relatively unified agreement that Airbnb rentals, specifically cases where the host is not present on the property, cause a loss in the sense of neighborhood unity, which can cause uneasiness and uncertainty within the community. The term “neighborhood watch” is present and often serves as a secondary sense of security that places people at ease. It appears that there is a loop in this cycle where an incursion of short-term rental properties in a neighborhood of historically long-term rental units causes a loss in the sense of security and community and, with the increase in the crimes in the past few years, exacerbates this problem. AirBNB has had a tense relationship with the city of San Francisco in the past few years, especially as the city has imposed stricter regulations on AirBNB, from the number of days a short-term rental is allowed to the fees AirBNB is taxed per unregistered host. As AirBNB continues to promote short-term rentals, this sense of community will further be dissolved, and a call to action becomes apparent. This project, in conclusion, aims to advocate for the residents of San Francisco and calls for the AirBNB board of directors to have stricter regulations on the presence of a host on-site, or the number of properties a single host is allowed to register on the site, all in order to protect the local communities who ultimately see and live with the aftereffects of Airbnbs.

From the various secondary sources compiled, there is a relatively unified agreement that AirBNB rentals, specifically cases where the host is not present on the property, causes a loss in the sense of neighborhood unity present, which can cause uneasiness and uncertainty within the community. The term "neighborhood watch" is present and often serves as a secondary sense of security that places people at ease. It appears that there is a loop in this cycle where an incursion of short term rental properties in a neighborhood of historically long term rental units causes a loss in a sense of security and community and with the increase in the crimes in the past few years, exacerbates this problem. AirBNB has had a tense relationship with the city of San Francisco in the past few years especially as the city has imposed stricter regulations on AirBNB, from the number of days a short term rental is allowed to the fees AirBNB is taxed with per unregistered host. As AirBNB continues to promote short term rentals, this sense of community will further be dissolved and a call to action becomes apparent. This project, in conclusion, aims to advocate for the residents of San Francisco, and calls for AirBNB board of directors to have stricter regulations from the presence of a host on site, or the number of properties a single host is allowed to register on the site, all in order to protect the local communities who ultimately see and live with the aftereffects of Airbnbs.

Significance

While Airbnb often has its fair share of controversies regarding its qualifications for a “short-term rental” or whether it verifies all available listings, another concern has been brought to light regarding their effect on the local communities. In particular, many communities and neighborhoods in San Francisco are concerned about Airbnb's impact on local social dynamics and a sense of safety for residents. The presence of Airbnb listings has caused an increase in crime and disorder in their neighborhoods, encouraged by Airbnb's relaxed approach to regulation and lack of initiatives to foster a positive relationship with the local communities they depend on. The incursion of many Airbnbs or short-term rentals in a community undermines a neighborhood's preexisting social dynamics and, as a result, weakens its natural ability to counteract and discourage crime.

Despite the significance of this discourse to residents and policymakers, very few studies have been conducted to examine the correlation between Airbnb listings and crime. This project seeks to advocate for Airbnb to enforce stricter regulations upon their Airbnb hosts, including appointing dedicated people to directly work with the rental host and community to foster a positive, mutually beneficial relationship catered to the uniqueness of the neighborhood's social dynamics and local government authority.

Airbnb rentals owe it to their communities and neighborhoods to create a welcoming environment for renters and tourists. Understanding how these short-term rentals affect the residents' local social dynamics and safety in the area is incredibly important to preserve a liveable and vibrant neighborhood for people to live and thrive in after Airbnb renters leave. With this project, we advocate for Airbnb to enforce stricter regulations upon their hosts to protect the local communities who ultimately see and live with the aftereffects of Airbnbs.

Footnotes

Benner, Katie. “Airbnb Settles Lawsuit with Its Hometown, San Francisco.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 2 May 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/05/01/technology/airbnb-san-francisco-settle-registration-lawsuit.html.

Fuller, T. (2023, September 7). In the gritty tenderloin, signs of rebirth emerge in small stretches. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/us/tenderloin-neighborhood-sf-art.html

Hod, I. (2023, July 20). San Francisco airbnb hosts struggle to rent homes amid the city's barrage of Bad Press. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/san-francisco-airbnb-hosts-struggle-to-rent-homes-amid-the-citys-barrage-of-bad-press/

Ramos, J. (2023, August 2). Conditions worsen in San Francisco Tenderloin District, nonprofits say; Safety Meeting to be held. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/conditions-worsening-in-tenderloin-district-nonprofits-say-safety-meeting-to-be-held/

SFTravel. (2023). Inner Richmond Neighborhood Guide. GoodMigrations. https://goodmigrations.com/city-guides/san-francisco/inner-richmond/

Steinmetz, Katy. “Airbnb San Francisco Report: The Company Uses Data to Fight Back.” Time, Time, 8 June 2015, time.com/3911869/airbnb-report-san-francisco-2/.

“About Us.” Airbnb Newsroom, 3 Aug. 2023, news.airbnb.com/about-us/.